Aleksandar Vučić – the chess player who measured himself

The Munich Security Conference shattered the dreams of all those who imagined and convinced themselves that the alliance between the United States of America and Europe had come to an end.

In a speech delivered in the Bavarian capital, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clearly emphasized that transatlantic ties are unbreakable and constitute a key force in defending contemporary civilization and the democratic values ​​on which it is based.

 Written by: Dragan Shormaz

Many may see this as a new approach by America, namely by President Donald Trump. However, it should be noted that the process that is taking place today is simply an acceleration of a strategy that was launched earlier, now intensified by the new American administration. Over the past 20 years, I have personally participated in many assemblies, summits, seminars and meetings where within NATO it has been discussed how European countries would gradually take responsibility for the eastern borders of the alliance, while the US would focus more on the Pacific region, especially towards the challenge of China.

Concrete steps were not taken until President Trump won a second term. Europe, meanwhile, was focused on the economy, trade, and social issues, leaving defense and security on the back burner. Then came Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, which within days shook the European order and caused chaos in the continent’s energy market. Whatever one may think of President Trump, his demand for increased defense investment to 5% of NATO member states’ GDP, as well as for a greater commitment by the European Union to financing Ukraine’s defense, proved to be right. Europe became aware, understood the mistakes of the past, and began to change. This is expected to strengthen the Euro-Atlantic world and restore the security of one of the greatest civilizations in history.

In an effort to strengthen NATO's eastern flank and free up American capabilities to counter China's growing ambitions, Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has embarked on the most profound transformation of its security and industrial sectors since World War II. The record defense budget of 108.2 billion euros and a trillion-euro package for infrastructure and defense are part of a broader European turnaround, which foresees total investments of 6.5 trillion euros over the next decade. The aim is for the Bundeswehr to become the most powerful conventional army in Europe, while intensive talks are underway with France on a joint nuclear deterrence strategy.

It has been proven that more European independence and strategic autonomy creates a fairer balance of responsibilities with the US and essentially strengthens the alliance of Western democracies, not what various dictators and supporters of authoritarianism around the world hoped for.

Not coincidentally, this group also includes Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia in the final year of his last term. Unlike what the whole world saw in Munich, the media under Vučić's editorial direction have been trying for days to convince their followers that the US and Europe have finally separated and that this constitutes a "historic opportunity" for the repositioning of the state and the leader himself, who does not hide that his political dream is to be a worrying factor for the Western powers.

By convincing himself of false narratives about the division and decline of the West, about Russian tanks in the Danube and Chinese generals drinking water in the Morava, Vučić has also severed the last remaining ties he had with European Union leaders. European media reports that the European Commission is very close to a decision to officially freeze the 1.6 billion euros dedicated to Serbia under the Western Balkans Growth Plan, due to the arbitrary adoption of anti-European laws, are a clear indication that Brussels and key EU states no longer see Vučić as a constructive partner.

On the contrary, it is increasingly perceived as part of regional problems and as a destabilizing factor, linked to the organized crime and endemic corruption that prevails in Serbia.

Vučić's continued efforts to destabilize Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia have had the opposite effect: strengthening military cooperation between countries in the region. This is pushing Serbia towards even deeper isolation and a position that increasingly resembles that of Belarus, with the difference that Serbia is surrounded by EU and NATO member states.

To make matters worse for Vučić, his grip on key Serbian leaders in the region, who previously served as his bargaining chips in negotiations with Western countries, has begun to weaken. This has made it impossible for him to, following Slobodan Milošević's tactic of creating new regional crises and then using them as bargaining chips at the diplomatic table.

The latest attempts to incite armed incidents in northern Kosovo, dating back to 2023, today hang over Vučić's head as a constant threat, with the risk of facing a fate similar to that of his ideological friend from Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro. NATO is increasingly reminding Serbia of the obligation to bring to justice those who participated in the attack on KFOR and the terrorist act in Banjska.

With the escalation of tensions between major powers in the international arena, Vučić's previous strategy of "playing many cards" in Serbia's geopolitical positioning has finally collapsed.

It is clear that neither he nor his circle have understood the significance of the rise of a “new iron curtain” in Europe, just as they did not understand the fall of the Berlin Wall at the end of the last century. The claims spread through his media – that Russia is making trillion-dollar deals with the US, despite having a GDP several times smaller, or that in Alaska Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have divided up their spheres of influence in the world – are expected to quickly fall apart. Even more absurd are the claims that China is also part of this “global agreement”. Precisely for this reason, Secretary Rubio’s speech in Munich constitutes a strong political blow to Vučić. There may be differences between America and Europe, but they will be resolved through dialogue, not through clashes.

Guided by radical, anti-democratic and anti-Western worldviews, Vučić has once again chosen the wrong side of history, putting himself and Serbia on a dead end, from which he does not seem capable of extricating the country. By refusing to impose sanctions on Russia, by not advancing the normalization process with Kosovo and by not clearly orienting Serbia towards EU and NATO membership, he has chosen the path of isolation – without allies and without development prospects, unlike other countries in the region.

Although he often builds his political position in opposition to the so-called “yellow thieves” regime – which Aleksandar Vučić and his supporters mistakenly lump all governments of the period 2000–2012 – he has carefully continued to inherit two key mistakes of that time. The first is the decision on military neutrality, which, although strategically detrimental to Serbia, he accepted as if it were carved in stone. The second is related to the handover of the Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) company to Russia – a decision that he had the opportunity to correct in Serbia’s favor, but which, due to fear and servility to the Kremlin structures, he did not do.

As is usually the case with servants treated as consumable goods by their masters, the false Russian “brothers” repaid their debt to their Balkan vassal by offering the NIS to a third party at a lower price than the one the “self-proclaimed owner of Serbia” himself had offered.

Relying on flawed and amateurish assessments of global processes, Vučić has found himself in a situation similar to that of Slobodan Milošević in the 90s. Internationally isolated and increasingly irrelevant, and facing declining support within Serbia itself, he is increasingly resorting to open violence, losing whatever legitimacy he may have had before. The attack on a small group of students on February 16 in Novi Sad testifies to his cowardice, malice, and political weakness. It is a shame on the police that did not react to protect its citizens – its neighbors – from such acts. Such a shame remains a lifelong stain.

The end of such a form of government is always the same. By making the classic mistake of dictators who believe they are smarter than their predecessors and will avoid their fate, Vučić seems to have condemned himself to the same end. Whether his end will be marked by the arrival of unknown helicopters or by a less spectacular scenario is of little importance in the face of the inevitability of such an epilogue. The year of the final showdown has just begun.

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